Volkswagen to Overtake Tesla’s Battery Electric Vehicle Sales Crown by 2024

Battery Electric Vehicle demand is set to more than double out to 2025

Tesla is likely to retain its global number one battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales spot for at least another 18 months as legacy automakers struggle to sell a meaningful share of BEVs in 2022 and 2023 according to a new major report on the global EV sector by research firm Bloomberg Intelligence (BI).

The report entitled ‘Battery Electric Vehicles Report – Automakers Race to the Top’ finds that the profit incentive to catch up with Tesla is lacking for most traditional marques in the short term amid rising battery costs and a lack of scale, except for Volkswagen. The German automaker is on track to overtake Tesla’s BEV volume in 2024 as global BEV demand is set to more than double out to 2025. BI’s analysis shows China’s BYD ranking third for BEV sales globally in 2025 followed by a glut of legacy automakers languishing around the one million annual BEV sales mark. It is not until later in the decade that US and Japanese automakers will be serious challengers for a top 3 spot.

In a bid to challenge Tesla’s $686 billion dollar market cap – which is almost double that of all US and EU legacy automakers combined – the report highlights that legacy automakers are unlikely to succeed in divesting BEV-related assets that are intertwined with their combustion operations and whose cash flows are paying for the transition. Volkswagen is the exception and is on track to launch an IPO of its Porsche brand in 4Q. Given the company’s potential 30% BEV sales mix in 2023 and about 45% in 2025, it is significantly ahead of peers and could attract a luxury based 85 billion euros valuation for the IPO and, possibly, an even higher tech-oriented valuation, according to the report.