Posts belonging to Category Unemployment



New fiscal support will set up an economic boom in the second half of 2021

 300,000 jobs per month created

Fiscal support will bolster US consumers and lead to an economic boom in the second half of 2021, according to a team of Evercore analysts led by Dennis DeBusschere.

“Despite what angry twitter folks and some news outlets are suggesting, the current fiscal package is large enough to make a significant difference for individuals,” the analysts said in a note to clients on Thursday.

The current proposed fiscal package will be roughly 3.5% of GDP in the first quarter, and could potentially add up to 300,000 jobs per month, Evercore said. This could occur even if direct payments to individuals are only $600, but Evercore predicts that amount will increase before a bill is passed.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/

U.S. Jobless Rate Set to Return to Single Digits

Two months before the U.S. election

America’s labor market probably extended its rebound in August to push the unemployment rate below 10% for the first time since the pandemic struck. With little more than two months before the U.S. election, reattaining that milestone in this week’s jobs report could provide ammunition for President Donald Trump to claim the economy is sustaining a recovery under his leadership. His Democratic opponents, led by Joe Biden, are likely to question whether such improvement can durably continue as America struggles to control the coronavirus.

U.S. employers projected to have added another 1.4 million jobs in August

https://www.bloomberg.com/

Paul Krugman: “Stocks Are Soaring. So Is Misery.”

“Optimism about Apple’s future profits won’t pay this month’s rent”

“On Tuesday, the S&P 500 stock index hit a record high. The next day, Apple became the first U.S. company in history to be valued at more than $2 trillion. Donald Trump is, of course, touting the stock market as proof that the economy has recovered from the coronavirus; too bad about those 173,000 dead Americans, but as he says, “It is what it is.”

But the economy probably doesn’t feel so great to the millions of workers who still haven’t gotten their jobs back and who have just seen their unemployment benefits slashed. The $600 a week supplemental benefit enacted in March has expired, and Trump’s purported replacement is basically a sick joke.

Even before the aid cutoff, the number of parents reporting that they were having trouble giving their children enough to eat was rising rapidly. That number will surely soar in the next few weeks. And we’re also about to see a huge wave of evictions, both because families are no longer getting the money they need to pay rent and because a temporary ban on evictions, like supplemental unemployment benefits, has just expired” (Extract from an Op-ed written by The Nobel Prize Paul Krugman in the New-York Times).

https://www.nytimes.com/

IMF Projects 5% Global Economic Decline in 2020

The dire outlook is worse than the IMF’s last forecast in April

Global economic growth will decline nearly 5% this year, International Monetary Fund officials announced on Wednesday, a much grimmer forecast than their last projections in April as the coronavirus pandemic triggers the world’s worst recession since the Great Depression.

The IMF’s latest dire World Economic Outlook update is nearly 2 percentage points worse than its last forecast in April, representing a slower-than-expected global recovery. The organization also downgraded its 2021 growth projections from 5.8% to 5.4%, which would leave global gross domestic product next year about 6.5 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic projections from January.

https://www.usnews.com/

U.S. layoffs ease in April

Hiring slumps to record low

Layoffs in the United States fell in April, but remained the second highest on record, while hiring hit an all-time low, suggesting the labor market could take years to recover from the COVID-19 crisis despite a surprise rebound in employment in May. The report from the Labor Department on Tuesday also showed a decline in job openings as the economy battles a recession triggered by the pandemic. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of U.S. recessions, declared on Monday that the economy slipped into recession in February.

The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed layoffs and discharges dropped 3.8 million in April to 7.7 million. That was second highest level since the government started tracking the series in 2000.

Prior to the pandemic, layoffs hovered around 1.8 million. They are nearly three times the worst month of the Great Recession. The layoffs and discharge rate fell to 5.9% in April from a record high 7.6% in March.

https://www.reuters.com/

OECD updates G20 summit on outlook for global economy

How to absorb growing economic blow

Increasingly stringent containment measures needed to slow the spread of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) will necessarily lead to significant short-term declines in GDP for many major economies, according to new OECD projections.  Efforts to contain virus and save lives should be intensified, and governments should plan stronger, more coordinated measures to absorb growing economic blow.

© OECD graph - The initial impact of containment measures will be felt worldwide

http://www.oecd.org/

Has Germany’s economy slumped into recession?

Economic output could have decreased slightly in the third quarter

Europe’s largest economy may have fallen into recession, according to Germany’s central bank.

“German economic output could have decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2019,” the Bundesbank said in its monthly report. If it did, Germany will have contracted for two consecutive quarters — it shrank by 0.1% in the three months to June — meaning it’s officially in recession.

The potential decline was “mainly due to the fact that the export-oriented industry continued to weaken,” the bank said. Exports have been hit especially hard by factors such as Brexit and the trade war.

https://www.businessinsider.com/

HSBC plans to cut 10,000 more jobs worldwide

Low interest rates, Brexit and global tariff wars

HSBC plans to lay off up to 10,000 staff as it embarks on a fresh cost-cutting drive just months after ousting its chief executive.

The cuts would mostly affect high-paid roles and shrink the global workforce by 4%, the Financial Times reported (£). It comes as the UK-based bank grapples with falling interest rates, Brexit and global tariff wars. HSBC declined to comment.

The job losses would come on top of 4,700 redundancies – mostly senior jobs – announced in early August, when HSBC similarly warned about a challenging global environment linked to US interest rate cuts, Britain’s EU divorce, the US-China trade war, and unrest in Hong Kong.

The staff cuts would mark the first major shake-up under the interim boss, Noel Quinn, who took over after the surprise departure of the chief executive, John Flint, in August. Flint is believed to have left HSBC amid tensions with its new chairman, Mark Tucker, after failing to take swift action on tough decisions at the lender. HSBC said its strategy had not changed and insisted Flint left by “mutual” agreement.

https://www.theguardian.com

Boris Johnson defeated in no-deal Brexit and election votes

Trapped in 10 Downing Street by a hostile parliament

Boris Johnson has suffered a humbling double defeat, as MPs backed legislation to stop Britain leaving the EU without a deal and then blocked the prime minister’s attempt to call an election to regain the initiative on Brexit.

Mr Johnson, facing growing anger from Tory MPs over his handling of Brexit, endured two defeats inside two hours on Wednesday night, leaving him, in effect, trapped in 10 Downing Street by a hostile parliament.

https://www.ft.com/

2020 Democratic candidates and the universal basic income

How to help workers impacted by job automation ?

Whether they call it a Freedom Dividend or a baby bond, some 2020 Democratic contenders have embraced the tenets of a universal basic income (UBI). Proponents of UBI — including Tesla TSLA, -1.38%   CEO Elon Musk and Facebook FB, -1.21%  CEO Mark Zuckerberg — argue that it would help workers impacted by job automation and provide Americans with a safety net.

About 36 million Americans — or 25% of U.S. jobs — have “high exposure to automation” over the next few decades, according to a Brookings Institute analysis published in January, with more than 70% of their tasks “at risk of substitution.” Jobs in food preparation, office administration, transportation and production are at greatest risk for automation, the report said.

But the concept of guaranteed income didn’t originate with 2020 Democrats — in fact, figures as varied as Martin Luther King, Jr., former President Richard Nixon and economist Milton Friedman have all backed versions of such a policy.

https://www.marketwatch.com/

Uber and Lyft strikes

US drivers stop taking rides in protest over pay

Rideshare drivers are striking and protesting in major cities across the United States, with many participating in a 24-hour strike of the Uber and Lyft apps that began at midnight on 8 May.

Cities affected by the stoppage – which varies in length from two-hour strikes to day-long boycotts – include Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, San Diego, Philadelphia and others. Strikes are also expected overseas in Britain, Australia and elsewhere.

The protests come the day before Uber launches its shares in a public offering on the US stock exchange.

http://www.theguardian.com/

Low productivity jobs continue to drive employment growth

Employment is rising in OECD countries

The latest Compendium of Productivity Indicators says the trend has compounded the impact of generally weak business investment on productivity growth. The downward pressure on wages may have allowed firms to defer investment decisions, instead meeting increased demand by hiring additional staff and, in turn, undermining the potential for investment-driven productivity growth, the report says.

In France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the top three sectors with the largest employment gains between 2010 and 2017 accounted for one third of total job creation but paid below average wages. Moreover, in Belgium, Finland, Italy and Spain, industries with above average labour productivity levels saw net job losses. The data show wage growth (adjusted for inflation) improving in recent years but remaining below pre-crisis rates in two thirds of OECD countries despite a period of negligible or slow wage growth, and earlier declines in purchasing power in the aftermath of the crisis. Indeed, real wages remain below crisis levels in Greece, Italy and Spain, and have also contracted in recent years in Belgium and Canada.

More jobs in lower paid sectors such as accommodation and catering and health and residential care, weigh on average wages across the economy as a whole.

http://www.oecd.org/

US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter

Exports rose 3.7% in the first quarter, while imports decreased by 3.7%

The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the first quarter and posted its best growth to start a year in four years.

First-quarter gross domestic product expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday in its initial read of the economy for that period. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected growth of 2.5%. It was the first time since 2015 that first-quarter GDP topped 3%.

http://www.cnbc.com

Amazon’s warehouse-worker tracking system can automatically fire people without a human supervisor’s involvement

Amazon has fired more than 300 workers, citing productivity, at a single facility in Baltimore in a single year 

Amazon’s demanding culture of worker productivity has been revealed in multiple investigations. But a new report indicates that the company doesn’t just track worker productivity at its warehouses — it also has a system that can automatically fire them.

Amazon has fired more than 300 workers, citing productivity, at a single facility in Baltimore in a single year (August 2017 through September 2018), The Verge’s Colin Lecher reported. The Verge cited a letter by an Amazon attorney as part of a case with the National Labor Relations Board.

An Amazon spokesperson confirmed to Business Insider, “Approximately 300 employees turned over in Baltimore related to productivity in this timeframe. In general, the number of employee terminations have decreased over the last two years at this facility as well as across North America.”

Amazon’s system tracks a metric called “time off task,” meaning how much time workers pause or take breaks, The Verge reported. It has been previously reported that some workers feel so pressured that they don’t take bathroom breaks.

http://www.businessinsider.com

Tesla will roll out 1 million robot-taxis next year

Tesla to compete with Uber

On Monday, CEO Elon Musk revealed the company’s plans to compete with incumbents like Uber with the company’s strategy for an autonomous ride-hailing fleet. Robo-taxis are essentially any Tesla vehicle with autonomous-driving functionality. To turn a Tesla into a robo-taxi, a car’s owner simply adds it to the Tesla Network platform by way of the company’s app.
Musk said that by “next year for sure, we will have over 1 million robo-taxis on the road.” Riders will be able to summon a robo-taxi via the same Tesla app – similarly to how they call for an Uber or Lyft today. The key difference, of course, is that there won’t be a driver in the car.
http://www.msn.com/