April jobs: ‘monster US payroll number’

Recovery charges ahead

The U.S. economy likely brought back the most jobs since August last month, with payrolls jumping by 1 million and the unemployment rate improving to a new pandemic-era low as more businesses reopen. The Labor Department is set to release the April jobs report Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the expected main results, according to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg.

Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise for a fourth straight month and at an accelerating clip, with easing social distancing standards across the country helping support the recovery. Every economist polled by Bloomberg predicted a strong increase in payrolls: On the high end, Jefferies economist Aneta Markowska estimated a surge of 2.1 million payrolls for April, while Prestige Economics’ Jason Schenker penciled in payroll gains of 700,000 on the low end.

But on average, economists are expecting a blowout payrolls number of at least 1 million. Nomura chief economist Lewis Alexander said market participants should brace for a “monster U.S. payroll number” this week, driven in large part by advances in some of the industries hardest-hit by the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality payrolls are still down by 3.3 million compared to February 2020 levels, but have been making some of the largest gains over the past several months to try and lessen this deficit.


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