Posts belonging to Category Climate change



$10 Oil – How Far Could Oil Prices Fall If We See A 2009 Style Crash?

Forecasters can’t revise down their projections for oil demand fast enough

While predictions about volatile oil prices abound, one theme keeps popping up: geopolitical risk premium. First it was theories about a closure at the Strait of Hormuz. Then it was fears of an all-out war between Iran and the United States or Iran and Saudi Arabia. All those are merely possibilities, but the reality suggests that a whole different kind of extreme is far more likely: crushingly low oil prices.

In amongst the screams of geopolitical risk premium are far scarier whispers of words such as demand destructiontrade disputes, and economic climate deterioration. And those words describe the current reality in the market, and as such, suggest a similar future reality—a reality where demand destruction continues to push prices down, down, down. Is $10 oil really possible?

Throughout 2019, it seems like the forecasters can’t revise down their projections for oil demand fast enough. The International Energy Agency has continued to revise downward its oil demand growth projections for 2019 and beyond.

https://www.oilprice.com

Goldman Sachs released a 34-page analysis of the impact of climate change

The results are terrifying 

Goldman Sachs released a report on the effect of climate change on cities around the world and the results made for grim reading.

The bank’s Global Markets Institute, led by Amanda Hindlian, warned of “significant” potential risks to the world’s largest cities, which are especially vulnerable to more frequent storms, higher temperatures, rising sea levels, and storm surges.

Cities generate about 80% of global GDP and are home to more than half of the world’s population, a share that Goldman says, citing the United Nations, is projected to reach two-thirds by 2050. About 40% of the global population lives within 100 kilometers of a coast, it says, and 1 in 10 live in areas less than 10 meters above sea level.

http://www.businessinsider.com

Crude futures to jump after drone attack on oil plants

Saudi stock market dives

Saudi Arabia’s stock market fell by 2.3% at Sunday’s open as the country grappled with weekend drone attacks on the heart of its oil production facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Reports that the country may take weeks to return to full oil supply capacity is set to send crude futures up by as much as $10 per barrel, analysts say, depending on the scale of the damage. Half the country’s oil production was halted due to fire damage and an assessment of the situation is due on Monday, Saudi energy ministry officials said. They have not yet offered a timeline on full production restoration.

http;//www.cnbc.com

Amazon fires: Brazil to reject G7 offer of $22m aid

Bolsonaro has accused France of treating Brazil like a colony

French President Emmanuel Macron – who hosted a G7 summit that ended on Monday – said $22m (£18m) would be released.

Brazilian officials gave no reason for turning down the money. But President Jair Bolsonaro has accused France of treating Brazil like a colony.

His defence minister said the fires in the Amazon were not out of control.

Commenting on the G7 offer of aid, Mr Bolsonaro’s chief of staff, Onyx Lorenzoni, told the Globo news website: “Thanks, but maybe those resources are more relevant to reforest Europe.”

“Macron cannot even avoid a predictable fire in a church that is part of the world’s heritage, and he wants to give us lessons for our country?” Mr Lorenzoni added, in a reference to the fire that hit Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris in April.

He also said Brazil could teach “any nation” how to protect native forests.

https://bbc.com/

The Amazon is on fire

How bad is it?

Thousands of fires are ravaging the Amazon rainforest in Brazil – the most intense blazes for almost a decade.

The northern states of Roraima, Acre, Rondônia and Amazonas as well as Mato Grosso do Sul have been particularly badly affected.

However, images purported to be of the fires – including some shared under the hashtag #PrayforAmazonas – have been shown to be decades old or not even in Brazil.

So what’s actually happening and how bad are the fires?

https://bbc.com/

The Energy Transition in 4 Charts

The world risks relying on fossil fuels for decades to come 

Even under an aggressive-action scenario, the outlook is dim for keeping global warming below 2° C, with emissions plateauing but not yet falling in the 2030s.
“The energy mix is changing only gradually, and the world risks relying on fossil fuels for decades to come,” Wood Mackenzie president Neal Anderson writes.

“Despite great efforts to reduce costs in renewables, electricity, zero-carbon technologies and advanced transportation — not to mention burgeoning support in governmental policies — it is not enough,” Anderson said.

“Our analysis sees carbon emissions continuing to rise into the 2020s, with growth slowing only in the 2030s. As a result, our Energy Transition Outlook (3° C) and Carbon-Constrained Scenario (2.5° C) fall outside the 2° C or lower trajectories.”

https://www.greentechmedia.com/

Oil falls after record U.S. shale output forecast

Shale production alone will hit a record 8.4 million barrels per day next month

Oil fell on Wednesday after the U.S. government said shale output would rise to a record next month, denting a rally that sent prices to their highest this year. Brent futures eased by 53 cents to trade at $65.92 a barrel by 1312 GMT, still within sight of Monday’s high for the year of $66.83. U.S. futures were at $55.77 a barrel, down 31 cents, having touched a 2019 peak of $56.39 earlier.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report on Tuesday shale production alone will hit a record 8.4 million barrels per day next month, suggesting little chance of a near-term slowdown in overall U.S. crude output.

http://www.reuters.com

Tesla Gigafactory in Shangai To Be Complete In Summer Of 2019

10% of the total planned capacity of the plant

The breakneck pace of work at Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory continues with the announcement that the company has started an energy conservation assessment in cooperation with several governmental agencies. In a further update, Chinese media noted that the project would be completed in the summer of 2019.

The first phase of the Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai is only an estimated 10% of the total planned capacity of the plant and will be producing the first cars by the end of this year.

The factory will produce Tesla’s smaller Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, launching with the Model 3 and starting production of Model Y essentially in parallel with production in the United States (at Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada).

http://www.cleantechnica.com

Amazon, GM in talks to invest in electric pickup truck maker Rivian

Rivian Automotive LLC valued up to $2 billion

Amazon.com Inc and General Motors Co are in talks to invest in Rivian Automotive LLC in a deal that would value the U.S. electric pickup truck manufacturer at between $1 billion and $2 billion, people familiar with the matter.

The deal would give Amazon and GM minority stakes in Rivian, the sources said. It would be a major boost for the Plymouth, Michigan-based startup, which aspires to be the first carmaker to the U.S. consumer market with an electric pickup.

If the negotiations conclude successfully, a deal could be announced as early as this month, the sources said, asking not to be identified because the matter is confidential. There is always a chance that deal talks fall through, the sources cautioned.

http://www.reuters.com

Tesla to buy energy tech company Maxwell Technologies

The deal represents a 55% premium over Maxwell’s closing stock price

Tesla plans to acquire energy technology company Maxwell Technologies for about $218 million, the company said Monday. Tesla will buy the company’s 45.9 million shares for $4.75 a share in an all-stock transaction. The deal represents a 55 percent premium over Maxwell’s closing stock price of $3.07 a share Friday and would value the company at around $218 million. 

Maxwell makes ultracapacitors, devices that can store and rapidly deliver surges of energy. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is a fan of the technology for electric cars. Musk has said in the past that the technology could be a more likely source of a breakthrough in electric vehicle technology than batteries. Musk even once said on Twitter that he had planned to conduct research on them at Stanford University.

http://cnbc.com

Oil prices collapsed

Supply Glut Fears Return

Oil prices collapsed on Tuesday for the second time in a week. During midday trading, WTI fell below $55 per barrel and Brent dropped below $65 per barrel. Both benchmarks are off more than $20 per barrel from their October highs. “Oil prices are under pressure in the face of ample supply, falling stock markets and an increasingly gloomy economic outlook,” Commerzbank said on Tuesday.
Tuesday also saw a plunge in global equities, which is dragging down all sorts of different sectors, including oil prices. “I think you’re going to see a risk-off type of market,” Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC, told Bloomberg. “It wouldn’t be surprising to see new lows being printed on oil” if crude stocks rise sharply. U.S. crude oil inventories likely rose by 3.5 million barrels last week, a sign that the surplus continues to build. In fact, concerns about a supply glut are growing by the day. The IEA said in its November Oil Market Report that the global surplus could average 0.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the fourth quarter.

The New Bear Market In Oil

U.S. shale production is skyrocketing

WTI dipped below $60 per barrel in early trading on Friday, the lowest price level in nearly a year. With prices down more than 20 percent from the October peak, WTI is now officially in a bear market.
Many of the factors that conspired to push oil prices up in recent months have all seemed to reverse course at exactly the same time.
First, U.S. shale production is skyrocketing. The EIA reported an unbelievable increase of 400,000 bpd in U.S. oil production in the first week of November, pushing output up to 11.6 million barrels per day (mb/d). The agency rounds off weekly estimates to the nearest hundred thousand barrels, somewhat obscuring the trajectory of growth, but the huge increase is notable by any standard.

World's longest sea bridge to open in China

The 55km bridge links Hong Kong and Macau to the Chinese mainland

The world’s longest sea bridge is set to open this week, linking the cities of Hong Kong and Macau to the Chinese mainland as part of a broader contentious plan to integrate the special administrative regions into China.
The $20bn Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge officially opens on Tuesday in a ceremony that Chinese president Xi Jinping is reportedly planning to attend. Officials are billing the 55km bridge as a key part of the Greater Bay Area plan, a campaign to connect Hong Kong and Macau to 11 Chinese cities to form a high-tech region to rival Silicon Valley.
The bridge links Hong Kong’s Lantau island to Zhuhai on the southern coast of Guangdong province and the gambling hub of Macau, a popular tourist spot for Chinese visitors.

Saudi Arabia invests $1 billion in electric carmaker Lucid Motors

A serious rival to Tesla

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has agreed to invest more than $1 billion in Lucid Motors, adding to the emerging competition facing U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc. The funding will enable Silicon Valley-based Lucid to achieve the commercial launch of its Lucid Air electric vehicle in 2020, PIF said in an announcement on Monday. Lucid joins Daimler-owned  Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen’s  Audi and Porsche divisions in the battle for dominance in the market for premium battery cars.
In August, Tesla founder Elon Musk said the Saudi sovereign wealth fund could help him to take his company private. The Lucid investment, which PIF said is more than $1 billion but did not give an exact figure, is also part of Saudi Arabia’s plan to build an environmentally friendly economy, to diversify the kingdom away from reliance on crude oil.

Flurry of electrifying announcements from the auto industry

Mercedes challenges Tesla with an all-electric SUV

Mercedes-Benz unveiled its first fully electric SUV today in Stockholm, the first in a long line of electric vehicles the automotive juggernaut will roll out over the coming years as part of its new EQ sub-brand. The EQC will run to 60 mph in under five seconds, go 200 miles between charges, and when it enters production in 2020, it will find itself in a world of increasingly fierce competition.
The EQC unveil comes amid a flurry of electrifying announcements from the auto industry. Later this month, Audi will debut its own electric SUV, the e-Tron. BMW just began taking orders for its upcoming iX3 electric SUV. Tesla is showing the production version of its gobsmacking, revived Roadster at the Grand Basel motor show in Switzerland this week. Jaguar is gearing up to start US deliveries of its much-lauded electric i-Pace later this year.

http://www.wired.com