UK would vote to remain in EU by majority of 54% to 46%

Brexit second referendum: New Large Poll

For Channel 4’s live programme on Monday night “Brexit: What The Nation Really Thinks” the polling company Survation interviewed 20,000 people online across every constituency in the UK from October 20th – November 2nd. The biggest independent survey of its kind on Brexit.

Data from the survey was used to drive a powerful Multi-level and post-stratification model to predict the result of an in/our referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. This MRP technique has previously been used to successfully predict the outcome of the 2017 General Election and the 2016 EU Referendum. From the predictions from this model, we can see how public opinion has shifted across the UK since the 2016 EU referendum.

Using this technique, we now estimate that the UK would vote to remain in the EU by a majority of 54% to 46% and that 105 local authorities in the UK that saw a majority of voters vote leave in 2016 would now vote Remain. This includes Birmingham, from where Channel 4’s show is broadcasting live, which voted 50.4% in favour of leave in 2016 but which is now predicted to vote 41.8% leave.

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