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U.K. Stocks Turning ‘Uninvestable’

Brexit is now such a headache that the UK is ‘uninvestable’: Bernstein

With politics dominating near-term moves, U.K. stocks have become “uninvestable,” according to Sanford C. Bernstein.That’s because the market is not quite cheap enough that extreme outcomes have been priced in, while it’s hard to make any confident bets on political events, strategists led by Inigo Fraser Jenkins wrote in a note.

Besides, there’s more upside in equities in the U.S., rest of Europe and Japan, so as the analysts say, “why take the risk of buying such a market?”

Sterling tumbles

World stocks rebound on trade optimism

A gauge of global stocks climbed on Thursday after five sessions of declines as Wall Street surged on trade optimism, while sterling tumbled as political developments in Britain rippled through markets.

Oil prices rose modestly, as the commodity recouped some losses from a recent steep plunge.

U.S. stock indexes surged after a Financial Times report that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has told some industry executives that another round of tariffs on Chinese imports has been put on hold as the two nations pursue talks.

Europe ready to retaliate if U.S. imposes auto tariffs

EU has a list of potential retaliation targets ready

European Union Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said on Wednesday that the EU has a list of potential retaliation targets ready in case U.S. President Donald Trump imposes auto tariffs on the bloc’s member states. Malmstrom told reporters after a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer that they did not speak specifically about auto tariffs, but focused instead on regulatory cooperation issues and ways to enable EU countries to import more American soybeans and liquefied natural gas.

Malmstrom did not specify the U.S. products on which the EU would levy retaliatory tariffs, as consultations with member states would need to take place, but she said the list could include “all kinds” of products.

“It could be cars, it could be agriculture, it could be industrial products – it could be everything. And we will do that, but hope we don’t have to get to that situation,” she said.

UK would vote to remain in EU by majority of 54% to 46%

Brexit second referendum: New Large Poll

For Channel 4’s live programme on Monday night “Brexit: What The Nation Really Thinks” the polling company Survation interviewed 20,000 people online across every constituency in the UK from October 20th – November 2nd. The biggest independent survey of its kind on Brexit.

Data from the survey was used to drive a powerful Multi-level and post-stratification model to predict the result of an in/our referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. This MRP technique has previously been used to successfully predict the outcome of the 2017 General Election and the 2016 EU Referendum. From the predictions from this model, we can see how public opinion has shifted across the UK since the 2016 EU referendum.

Using this technique, we now estimate that the UK would vote to remain in the EU by a majority of 54% to 46% and that 105 local authorities in the UK that saw a majority of voters vote leave in 2016 would now vote Remain. This includes Birmingham, from where Channel 4’s show is broadcasting live, which voted 50.4% in favour of leave in 2016 but which is now predicted to vote 41.8% leave.

Germany and France draw up no-deal Brexit plans

Angela Merkel tells German MPs they must ‘prepare for every scenario’ of UK’s exit

Germany and France are starting to step up their preparations for a no-deal Brexit even though both publicly insist an agreement with the UK over the terms of its departure from the EU can still be achieved. While there was there was still a chance for a deal, it was “only fitting as a responsible and forward-thinking government leadership that we prepare for every scenario”, the German chancellor told MPs in Berlin. “That includes the possibility of Britain leaving the EU without an agreement.”

France has published a draft bill that would allow the government to introduce new legal measures to avoid or mitigate the consequences of a hard Brexit by emergency decree, as opposed to parliamentary vote, within 12 months of the law being passed. Angela Merkel revealed for the first time on Wednesday that Germany was drawing up contingency plans, saying the government had started making “suitable preparations” for the possibility of Britain leaving with no accord.

http://www.theguardian.com

Boris Johnson humiliated Theresa May

Tory members cheered every word

Imagine being Theresa May, at half past 12 this afternoon. Walking, with your party chairman, through the venue of your party conference – when you happen upon a swarm of photographers. But those photographers aren’t here to see you. And nor, not far from the swarm, are the hundreds upon hundreds of your party members, who are currently standing in the most enormous, snaking queue.

The queue isn’t for the main hall, where your ministers are giving speeches to promote your policies. The main hall is practically empty. Your members aren’t interested. They don’t want to see your ministers, or hear about your policies.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk

Deutsche Bank mulls merger scenario with UBS

Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) has looked at a theoretical scenario of merging with UBS (UBSG.S), the German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The scenario, along with a potential merger with Commerzbank (CBKG.DE), was discussed at the bank’s strategy meeting with the supervisory board earlier this month, Handelsblatt said.

On paper, a potential merger with UBS fares better than a deal with Commerzbank as Deutsche Bank and the Swiss lender would complement each other well in the areas of investment banking and wealth management, the report said. A merger with Commerzbank, in contrast, might lead to high restructuring costs due to large overlap, the paper said.

http://www.reuters.com

Jeremy Corbyn will accept second Brexit referendum if Labour conference votes for it

Plans to side with Tory Brexit rebels

And the Labour leader will reluctantly back a second EU referendum if his party conference calls for it. In his only newspaper interview as delegates gathered in Liverpool, Mr Corbyn said: “If this Government can’t deliver Brexit then it must move over and have a General Election.”

To do this Mr Corbyn’s MPs and Tories from Jacob Rees-Mogg’s ­European Research Group of ­Brexiteers would vote together against Mrs May’s Chequers plan. Labour set six tests for any final deal including a strong relationship with Europe, the same rights, protections and benefits we have now and fair migration to boost Britain’s economy.

http://www.mirror.co.uk

European Union rejects Theresa May BREXIT plan

The EU tells Theresa May  Chequers Brexit plan ‘will not work’

Theresa May was left fighting to save her Chequers Brexit plan and with it her authority as prime minister after she was ambushed at the end of the Salzburg summit when EU leaders unexpectedly declared that her proposals would not work.

On Thursday night the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, hit back for the government, declaring there were no changes to the Chequers plan on the table and the EU’s demands on Northern Ireland were “impossible” for the UK to accept. “The PM has set out red lines that this country is not going to stay in the single market, we’re not going to stay in the customs union – I agree with her on those, that’s the government’s position,” Grayling said.

The prime minister was thrown on to the defensive – just over a week before the Conservative party conference – when EU leaders led by Donald Tusk and Emmanuel Macron rejected her Chequers plan as it stood, prompting hard Brexit Conservatives to demand it be abandoned.

http://www.theguardian.com

Boris Johnson says May’s Brexit plan ‘worse than status quo’

Tory Brexiteers have attacked Theresa May’s Brexit plan

Boris Johnson and other leading Tory Brexiteers have attacked Theresa May’s Brexit plan at an event putting the economic case for leaving the EU without an agreement on trade. The Economists For Free Trade report said the UK had “nothing to fear” from a “clean break” from the EU and using World Trade Organisation rules. This could give an £80bn boost to the tax base and cut prices by 8%, it said. But the claims were branded “Project Fantasy” by Labour MP Chuka Umunna. And Chancellor Philip Hammond said the economic assumptions behind the analysis were “not sustainable” and out of line with other forecasts.

Mr Hammond, who earlier on Tuesday announced Bank of England Governor Mark Carney would be extending his contract until January 2020 to provide continuity after Brexit, has issued a fresh warning of “some turbulence” if the UK left the EU in March without a deal.

No-deal Brexit could see hospitals run out of medicine

Status of EU workers at risk

Hospitals will be in danger of drug shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, NHS trusts have warned privately. Poorly coordinated ministers and health service bosses have failed to properly prepare for the possibility of the UK crashing out of the European Union, according to a leaked letter fromNHS Providers, which represents the trusts. “Public health and disease control coordination could suffer,” said the organisation’s chief executive Chris Hopson, who warned a hard Brexit or no deal could negatively impact upon “the entire supply chain of pharmaceuticals”.

Brexit could also jeopardise the status of EU workers ”on which the NHS relies”, he added.

https://www.independant.co.uk

Greece emerges from eurozone bailout programme

Greece is now free to borrow money on the financial markets

Greece has successfully completed a three-year eurozone bailout programme designed to help it cope with the fallout from its debt crisis. For the first time in eight years, Greece is now free to borrow money on the financial markets. As a condition of the loans, the Greek government was forced to introduce a series of unpopular austerity measures.
The Greek economy has grown slowly in recent years but is still 25% smaller than when the crisis began. Together with assistance from International Monetary Fund (IMF), the loans given to Greece since 2010 amounted to more than €260bn – the biggest bailout in global financial history. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) provided the country with €61.9bn (£55bn; $70.8bn) over the three years.

https://www.bbc.com

Why Turkey’s currency is plunging

Turkey’s currency and stock market kept on falling

Turkey’s currency and stock market kept on falling Monday, weighed down by investor fears about the country’s economic policies and worsening relations with the United States. The lira fell as low as 6.89 to the dollar Monday, down about 7 percent on the day and 45 percent since the start of the year. The main stock index fell 3.5 percent.

Why is Turkey currency so weak? One reason is that cheap borrowing rates in major economies like the U.S. are rising, attracting investors’ money away from emerging economies like Turkey. Ultra-low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe had for years encouraged companies in Turkey to borrow in foreign currencies. That helped the economy, which booked 7 percent growth last year. But now the U.S. Federal Reserve is raising rates. That draws capital away from Turkey, weakening the currency. And it makes it more expensive for Turkish companies to repay the foreign currency debts, raising economic concerns that can further weaken the currency.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/

The UK would vote to stay in the European Union by 53% to 47% if asked again.

45% of people support a People’s Vote on the final deal, while 34% do not

UK voters would back remaining in the European Union by 53% to 47% if a referendum was held now, according to a comprehensive new poll published today.

A YouGov survey for the ‘pro-remain People’s Vote campaign’ found that 45% want a say on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations with 34% opposed.

Exactly half of respondents said the final decision over whether to leave the EU without a deal should be taken by the public in a second referendum, while a quarter said the British parliament should decide.

Opponents of the UK’s exit from the bloc said the YouGov study of more than 10,000 adults showed public opinion was shifting.

https://www.rte.ie/

Why gold is plunging

Gold is supposed to be a haven

Why has the price fallen lately? Simply put, it’s the strong US dollar.

Expectations for more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have helped lift the value of the currency.

A stronger dollar often is a bad thing for gold because it makes the metal more expensive for international investors.

http://www.cnn.com