Posts belonging to Category Unemployment



Brexit: Airbus ‘set to quit’ UK

Tens of thousands of jobs at risk

Aerospace giant Airbus is preparing to quit Britain due to fears of a hard Brexit, potentially putting tens of thousands of jobs at risk, it was reported last night.

The European aerospace company, said to generate £1.7billion a year in tax, is set to abandon plans to build aircraft wings at its British plants, according to The Times.

Production will be moved to China, the US or elsewhere in Europe, rather than taking place here as was previously hoped. Airbus, which has factories in Bristol, Portsmouth, Stevenage and Broughton in north Wales, employs 14,000 people in the UK while a further 110,000 jobs are supported by its supply chain.

https://www.metronews.com/

U.S. job growth surges

Unemployment rate falls to 3.8 percent

U.S. job growth accelerated in May and the unemployment rate dropped to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent, pointing to rapidly tightening labor market conditions, which could stir concerns about inflation. The closely watched employment report released by the Labor Department on Friday also showed wages rising solidly, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month and boosting the probability of two more hikes later in the year. It renewed fears about the economy overheating.

https://www.reuters.com/

Deutsche Bank mulls cutting 10,000 staff globally

City jobs in firing line

The City is braced for swingeing cuts at Deutsche Bank as the beleaguered banking giant considers cutting 10,000 jobs globally, equivalent to one in 10 of its staff, according to reports.

It is understood the redundancies will be focused in the German lender’s investment bank, which employs more than 8,000 people in the UK.

Globally the unit employs 40,000 of the lender’s total 97,000 workforce.

https://www.telegraph.co.ukcom/

US and China to reach an agreement at trade talks

Package of  $200 billion

It will be very challenging for the U.S. and China to come to an agreement about trade this week, in part because the Trump administration has been “unclear in what it really wants,” a strategist said on Friday.

“On the one hand, the President remains very focused on the size of the bilateral trade deficit, and reportedly the Chinese has come to Washington with a package of about $200 billion worth of purchases that would certainly remedy a large portion of that deficit,” said Amy Celico, principal at the Albright Stonebridge Group, a global strategy and business advisory firm.

But on the other hand, the U.S. administration and Congress want China to change some of its behavior on unfair trade practices, and seek to put an end to subsidies for advanced technology industries and forced technology transfers.

https://www.cnbc.com/

Global economy will slow after 2019

The global economy is still on an upswing

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it expects global growth will inch up from 3.8% in 2017 — its fastest pace in six years — to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019. That’s in line with its most recent estimate in January.

It also upgraded its forecast for US growth in 2018 to 2.9%, up from 2.7% previously. But things don’t look as good in 2020 and beyond.

“Global growth is projected to soften beyond the next couple of years,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook.

Humans are sometimes superior to robots

Elon Musk tweets about Tesla delays

  • “Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated,” Musk wrote in a tweet on Friday3.
  • His tweet came in response to a story from CBS, in which the CEO bemoaned the Model 3 as overly ambitious, and the production process as too technical.

http://www.cnbc.com/

Trade War: President Trump Wants to Hit Heavily Chinese Goods

 $100 Billion in New Tariffs

President Donald Trump instructed the U.S. trade representative to consider slapping an additional $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods on Thursday in a dramatic escalation of the trade dispute between the two countries.

Trump’s surprise move came a day after Beijing announced plans to tax $50 billion in American products, including soybeans and small aircraft, in response to a U.S. move this week to slap tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports.

And it intensified what was already shaping up to be the biggest trade battle since World War II. Global financial markets had fallen sharply as the world’s two biggest economies squared off over Beijing’s aggressive trade tactics. But they had calmed down Wednesday and Thursday on hopes the U.S. and China would find a diplomatic solution.

 http://www.time.com

Is Amazon a monopoly?

President Trump is ‘obsessed’ with Amazon

Capitol Hill wants Facebook’s blood, but President Trump isn’t interested. Instead, the tech behemoth Trump wants to go after is Amazon, according to five sources who’ve discussed it with him. “He’s obsessed with Amazon,” a source said. “Obsessed.” Trump has talked about changing Amazon’s tax treatment because he’s worried about mom-and-pop retailers being put out of business.

A source who’s spoken to POTUS: “He’s wondered aloud if there may be any way to go after Amazon with antitrust or competition law.”Trump’s deep-seated antipathy toward Amazon surfaces when discussing tax policy and antitrust cases. The president would love to clip CEO Jeff Bezos’ wings. But he doesn’t have a plan to make that happen.
Trump’s wealthy friends tell him Amazon is destroying their businesses. His real estate buddies tell him — and he agrees — that Amazon is killing shopping malls and brick-and-mortar retailers.

http://www.axios.com

Machines have replaced human stock market traders

Impact on the next financial crisis could be devastating

The February sell-off in stocks demonstrated the impact of automated trading on markets, according to Charles Himmelberg, Goldman Sachs’ cohead of global markets research.
“In this new market structure, machines have replaced humans, and speed has replaced capital,” Himmelberg said in a note.
This new ecosystem dominated by machines has dried up the sources of liquidity that would be needed in the next major wave of selling, he said.
http://www.businessinsider.com

The Probability Of A U.S. Recession

Identifying and discussing two U.S. recession probability models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is updated regularly, and the results of these – as well as other recession models – can fluctuate significantly.

The first is the “Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator” from the New York Federal Reserve. I wrote a post concerning this measure on March 1, 2010,titled “The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator.” Currently (last updated March 6, 2018, using data through February) this “Yield Curve” model shows a 9.1421% probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead. For comparison purposes, it showed a 10.4146% probability through January, and a chart going back to 1960 is seen at the “Probability Of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread.” (pdf)

The second model is from Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger. This model is described on the St. Louis Federal Reserve site (FRED) as follows:

http://www.seekingalpha.com…  March 19, 2018