Posts belonging to Category Unemployment



The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model is bullish

US economy: 5,4% growth (annual rate) in the first Quarter of 2018

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 5.4percent on February 1, up from 4.2 percent on January 29. The forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, while the forecast of real private fixed-investment growth increased from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent after the ISM report and this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for January—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.42 to 1.37 after the ISM report.

http://www.frbatlanta.org…  Febuary 02, 2018

It’s official now: Brexit would damage UK growth

Leaked cabinet report

Brexit would leave the UK worse off under three possible scenarios: a comprehensive free trade deal, single market access and no deal at all, according to a leaked government analysis of the economic impact of leaving the EU.

The document was meant to be shown confidentially to cabinet ministers this week but was leaked in an embarrassing development for Theresa May and David Davis, the Brexit secretary.

It said national growth would be 8% lower under a no deal scenario, around 5% lower with a free trade agreement with the EU and about 2% lower with a soft Brexit option of single market membership over a 15-year period.

http://www.theguardian.com…  Febuary 01, 2018

The store of the future

Inside Amazon Go

Long lines at checkout are common at grocery stores. But at Amazon’s new cashier-free store, you’ll only need to worry about clumps of tourists. The small test store in Seattle, which opened to the public for the first time on Monday, could be what automated shopping spaces will look like in the future. It uses cameras and sensors to detect what food you’ve taken from a shelf, then automatically charges you when you walk out. I stopped by to try out the store, located in the base of Amazon’s corporate skyscraper, on Thursday morning. Three days after its grand opening, the massive lines had mostly disappeared. There were only a handful of shoppers inside at 10:15 a.m., but business picked up at lunchtime and there was a short line to enter.

To walk in, you need a few things: an Amazon account, a recent smartphone, and the Amazon Go app. You enter the 1800-square-foot space through six high-tech turnstiles. Open the app and wave a code on your screen above a gate to open it. It’s a familiar experience to anyone who has ridden a subway or used a mobile boarding pass at the airport.

http://www.cnn.com…  January 29, 2018

Dark clouds gathering on the horizon’ for Britain’s economy

UBS upgrades pessimistic forecast for UK growth

he Swiss bank UBS has admitted that the outlook for the UK is not as bad as it thought in the immediate aftermath of the European Union referendum and that the economy is well-positioned to benefit from strong global growth. While uncertainty about the final outcome of Brexit might weigh on economic progress, the bank did not believe it would derail future economic expansion.

UBS forecast that the UK will grow 0.7pc in 2018 has been upgraded to 1.1pc and the bank believes this rate of acceleration will be sustained into 2019. This is still a fairly negative view compared to other economists. The consensus view is that the economy will grow by 1.4pc next year. The Bank of England thinks it will be 1.6pc.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk…  Fri., 24  November 2017

Britain's economy is already weaker because of Brexit

Business investment is being affected by uncertainties

The Bank of England didn’t mince words today on the effect of Brexit on the British economy. “Brexit-related constraints on investment and labour supply appeared to have been reinforcing the marked slowdown,” the central bank wrote in its inflation report.

The BOE added that while Britain was being held back by Brexit, the rest of the world was heading into a period of strong growth. “Uncertainties associated with Brexit were weighing on domestic activity, which had slowed even as global growth had risen significantly,” the bank said.

http://www.msn.com…  Fri.,  03  November 2017

BREXIT will hit strongly The City

Brexit may lead to half of City’s EU workers leaving UK

More than half of EU nationals currently working in investment management in the UK are not confident they will continue working in the country after Brexit, a report from the CFA Society UK reveals.

CFA UK’s survey of 1,100 professionals found that City workers regardless of nationality feel their job security is under threat as a result of Brexit, with just 43% of EU nationals and 52% of non-EU international employees feeling their job is secure. By comparison, 60% of British national respondents feel that their job is secure. According to CFA UK, the respondents’ views “are likely to have been impacted by their sense of job security in the current climate”.

http://www.investmentweek.co.uk…  Wed.,  18  October 2017

Will Trump reappoint Yellen?

Central Bank’s massive bond-buying program worries Republicans

From her early days as Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen has been the target of criticism from Republicans worried that the central bank’s massive bond-buying programs and near-zero interest rates engineered by her predecessor would be the ruin of the country. With little more than four months left in her term and questions swirling over whether the White House will ask her to stay on for another four years, Yellen has turned that story around.

The Fed has raised rates faster than markets had thought possible this year and, on Wednesday, it announced its $4.5 trillion bond portfolio would begin to shrink in October. All the while, unemployment has plunged to boomtime levels and inflation has remained well in check. Now Yellen’s stock appears to be rising, both among her critics and on a real-money exchange where traders can place bets on who they think will be the next Fed chair.

http://www.reuters.comFri.,  22  September 2017

Toys R Us files for bankruptcy

Hundreds of millions in debt

Toys R Us, facing imminent deadlines to pay off hundreds of millions in debt, said Monday that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.   The move comes on the cusp of the all-important holiday season, a period in which many retailers earn nearly half of their annual revenue, and a time of year that is particularly lucrative for the giant toy seller. The filing was long in the making.

The filing also strikes at the heart of one of the nation’s most iconic retailers, a household name for more than a generation. Toys R Us pioneered big-box toy retailing generations ago, a national chain that displaced many smaller, neighborhood toy stores. The company emphasized that its roughly 1,600 locations will remain open and it will continue to work with suppliers to make sure its shelves remain well-stocked with games, gadgets, and other toys.

http://www.usatoday.com…  Tue.,  19  September 2017

There is no full employment in the US economy

Weak wage growth suggests the economy is not at full employment

TODAY’S labour market report showed that the American economy created 156,000 net new jobs in August. That was a bit less than expected, but payrolls are still growing comfortably faster than the working-age population.
Despite having created over 2m jobs in the last year, pushing unemployment below 4.5% for the last five months, wage growth remains muted, at around 2.5%, compared to more like 3.5% the last time unemployment was comparably low. Potential explanation for weak wage growth: retirements of high-earnings baby-boomers.

http://www.economist.com…  Mon.,  04  September 2017

Greece is looking towards China

Resentful Greece Embraces China’s Cash and Interests

After years of struggling under austerity imposed by European partners and a chilly shoulder from the United States, Greece has embraced the advances of China, its most ardent and geopolitically ambitious suitor.

While Europe was busy squeezing Greece, the Chinese swooped in with bucket-loads of investments that have begun to pay off, not only economically but also by apparently giving China a political foothold in Greece, and by extension, in Europe. Last summer, Greece helped stop the European Union from issuing a unified statement against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. This June, Athens prevented the bloc from condemning China’s human rights record. Days later it opposed tougher screening of Chinese investments in Europe.

http://www.nytimes.com…  Mon.,  28  August 2017