Posts belonging to Category FOREX



Why Turkey’s currency is plunging

Turkey’s currency and stock market kept on falling

Turkey’s currency and stock market kept on falling Monday, weighed down by investor fears about the country’s economic policies and worsening relations with the United States. The lira fell as low as 6.89 to the dollar Monday, down about 7 percent on the day and 45 percent since the start of the year. The main stock index fell 3.5 percent.

Why is Turkey currency so weak? One reason is that cheap borrowing rates in major economies like the U.S. are rising, attracting investors’ money away from emerging economies like Turkey. Ultra-low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe had for years encouraged companies in Turkey to borrow in foreign currencies. That helped the economy, which booked 7 percent growth last year. But now the U.S. Federal Reserve is raising rates. That draws capital away from Turkey, weakening the currency. And it makes it more expensive for Turkish companies to repay the foreign currency debts, raising economic concerns that can further weaken the currency.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/

Why gold is plunging

Gold is supposed to be a haven

Why has the price fallen lately? Simply put, it’s the strong US dollar.

Expectations for more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have helped lift the value of the currency.

A stronger dollar often is a bad thing for gold because it makes the metal more expensive for international investors.

http://www.cnn.com

Turkey could be the next emerging market to fall into crisis

The Turkish lira has now lost 27% of its value this year

Economists had been expecting the bank to hike rates to fight inflation, which topped 15% in June. Many observers said the unorthodox decision showed that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who supports lower interest rates, has increased his influence over the central bank.

http://www.cnn.com

All-out trade war would lower earnings for US companies by 15%

60% probability that the U.S. imposes tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China

The acceleration of U.S. trade actions poses a risk to S&P 500 earnings through falling export revenues and rising input costs for American companies, according to Goldman Sachs. A 10 percent tariff on all imports from China would lower Goldman’s 2019 S&P 500 earnings per share estimate by 3 percent, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin wrote. If “tensions spread” and a 10 percent tariff were imposed on all U.S. imports, Goldman said, it would lower its 2019 EPS estimate by 15 percent to $145 a share.

“Tariffs benefit some domestic industries, but pose a risk to S&P 500 earnings through reduced revenues (lower exports) and weaker margins (higher input costs),” Kostin wrote. “Our economists now assign a 60 percent probability that the U.S. imposes tariffs on the recently targeted $200 billion of imports from China.” President Donald Trump and his administration have defended an initiative of “fair and reciprocal” trade in recent months, demanding that some of the nation’s economic allies offer the U.S. a better deal in an effort to curb Washington’s trade deficit and promote American exports.

http://www.cnbc.com

The City of London just suffered a major defeat from the EU over plans for Brexit

Major blow to the UK’s financial services sector

The European Union late last week dealt a major blow to the UK’s financial services sector in the lead up to Brexit, after negotiators rejected the plans for the sector laid out by the British government in Prime Minister Theresa May’s controversial white paper. According to a report from the Financial Times, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, last Friday told EU ministers that the financial services elements of May’s Brexit plans could not be accepted as they threatened to rob the bloc’s “decision-making autonomy” when it comes to finance.

The UK, earlier in July, proposed a new relationship between the highly interconnected financial services sectors of the UK and the EU that would involve a system of so-called “equivalence.” Under the plans in the white paper, the government said i t will seek to improve on existing requirements for equivalence of rules between the EU and outside countries.

Equivalence is a framework whereby the EU acknowledges that the legal, regulatory and supervisory regime of a non-EU country is as good as its own, and therefore allows that state access to the financial services sector within the bloc. Countries like Singapore and the USA already use a similar system to trade financial services with the EU.

http://www.businessinsider.com

Bitcoin’s victory

Wall Street Will SoonTrade Virtual Currency

Some of the biggest names on Wall Street are warming up to Bitcoin, a virtual currency that for nearly a decade has been consigned to the unregulated fringes of the financial world.

The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange has been working on an online trading platform that would allow large investors to buy and hold Bitcoin, according to emails and documents viewed by The New York Times and four people briefed on the effort who asked to remain anonymous because the plans were still confidential.

The news of the virtual exchange, which has not been reported before, came after Goldman Sachs went public with its intention to open a Bitcoin trading unit — most likely the first of its kind at a Wall Street bank.

Venezuela’s economy is collapsing

Venezuela’s inflation could soar 13,000 percent by year’s end

Venezuela’s president says he’s boosting the minimum wage by 155 percent to keep up with runaway inflation that’s making it difficult for people to afford daily goods.

President Nicolas Maduro issued an order that brings the monthly wage to 1 million bolivars, or $1.61 on the commonly used black market. It’s the third increase this year. Despite having the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela is in its fifth year of an economic crisis worse than the Great Depression.

The International Monetary Fund has said it estimates that Venezuela’s inflation could soar 13,000 percent by year’s end.

Maduro will seek a second six-year term on May 20.

https://abcnews.go.com/

Britain unveils new fintech plans, including cryptocurrencies

G20:  no consensus for global regulation of cryptocurrencies

Britain announced a task force on Thursday to exploit the technology underpinning cryptoassets, such as bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as part of new plans to help fintech companies find more customers.

British finance minister Philip Hammond said he was committed to helping fintech grow and flourish by taking a series of domestic steps and forging links overseas.

“As part of that, a new task force will help the UK to manage the risks around cryptoassets, as well as harnessing the potential benefits of the underlying technology,” Hammond told a fintech conference hosted by the finance ministry.

Investors have flocked to cryptocurrencies like bitcoin despite wild price swings.

Regulators have warned that investors could lose all their money, but see promise in the blockchain technology that underpins cryptoassets.

Britain’s announcement comes after finance ministers from the Group of 20 richest economies (G20) were unable this week to find enough consensus for global regulation of cryptocurrencies.

http://www.reuters.com

Machines have replaced human stock market traders

Impact on the next financial crisis could be devastating

The February sell-off in stocks demonstrated the impact of automated trading on markets, according to Charles Himmelberg, Goldman Sachs’ cohead of global markets research.
“In this new market structure, machines have replaced humans, and speed has replaced capital,” Himmelberg said in a note.
This new ecosystem dominated by machines has dried up the sources of liquidity that would be needed in the next major wave of selling, he said.
http://www.businessinsider.com

Stocks or Bonds: What Happens When Rates Rise?

Basic rules

Although there are no specific rules about how bonds and dividend-paying stocks respond to rising interest rates, there are some broad tendencies you may want to consider, suggests Mary Ann Bartels, head of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Portfolio Strategy.

With bonds, the “coupon rate” is the interest rate that an issuer uses to calculate regular interest payments to investors. The longer the term of a bond, the higher the coupon is likely to be; you’re paid more to wait longer to get your principal back. Higher risk, too, affects the coupon, with high-yield bonds from less solid companies offering more generous interest payments than you’ll get from higher-rated corporations or from U.S. Treasury bonds.

http://www.ml.com…  Febuary 23, 2018