Is a global recession coming?

Seven warning signs

The global economy is heading into recession. At least that is the fear after months of warning signs from the engine of global trade, which has spluttered this year. Here we examine seven clues that the trend, after 10 years of expansion, could be backwards.

Eighteen months ago Donald Trump began his “America first” campaign with a fight over steel dumping. The US president imposed 25% import tariffs on steel against China, the EU, India, Canada and Mexico.

Since then the focus has all been on China. Trump blamed Beijing for undercutting US goods with an undervalued currency. As a punishment he imposed import tariffs on a wide range of Chinese goods and has threatened to expand the scope to include computer games consoles, mobile phones and laptops. It’s difficult to measure the impact, but most countries report a downturn in trade since the tariffs began to bite.

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